HOME > 2020 China Car Market Forecast
2020 China Car Market Forecast
| Publication | |
| ■ June 30, 2010 | |
| Format | |
| ■ A4, 260 pages | |
| Orders | |
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■ 160,000 JPY (Free shipping, Japan VAT) |
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| View PDF Pamphlet | |
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Printable About 972KB |
FOURIN’s Special Report on China’s Projected Automotive Industry and Market Performance
- Forecasting China’s car market through to 2020 by analyzing regional motorization, income increase and population movement.
- Estimating market growth potential by looking at car possession and demand characteristics of main regions and cities.
- Brand marketing strategies of 15 global and 14 local automobile makers.
- Providing information on the latest automotive policies such as car inspection, scrapping, distribution, fuel consumption, safety regulation and taxation.
- Reporting on car financing, insurance, dealers and used car market trends.
China’s path to motorization differs completely from those experienced in the 20th century by developed countries beginning with the US. Accordingly, many phenomena are occurring which cannot be explained based on precedence and common belief of markets in developed countries. Just like trying to predict accurately an unsettled weather pattern, so too is the extreme difficulty in precisely judging the short-term direction of China’s passenger car market. Factors which affect growth of the Chinese passenger car market are widely revealed through meticulous information gathering and data analysis.
This research publication specifically offers a concise insight into growth potential and peculiarities of the Chinese automotive market based on major trends from urbanization in the world’s most populous nation, tastes of consumers by regional and income segmentation, and moreover, the influence of government policy and future direction. Based on research of such fundamentals, this publication clarifies business strategy and vision through to the year 2020 of approximately 30 passenger car brands, while also giving a breakdown of product planning and future changes in competitiveness by brand.
Please click the following image. It is possible to see in a large size.
| ▼Chapter Two | ▲PAGE TOP |
 Chapter One |
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Aspects of China’s 2020 Passenger Car Market
-Forecasting the Future of China’s Passenger Car - 1 |
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1. Aspects of 2020 China Scenario: Highly-Diverse Domestic Market; Vehicle Ownership Ratio Kept Below GDP Growth
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2. Consumer Cluster Base Strategy: Rise of Lower-Medium Car Users in Mid Term; Strategic Issue of Fostering Loyalty of New Consumer Base in Long Term
4
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3. Buyers’ Market: Winning Streak to Be Maintained by Tireless Enhancement of Cost Performance
8
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4. Passenger Car Production Plan: Number of Domestic-Made Models Are Expected to Reach 600 in 2020
10
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5. Production Capacity Improvement Plan: Annual Production Capacity to Double from the Current Level by 2020 to 31 Million Units
22
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6. Passenger Car Model Change: Aim to Conquer by Replacing Old Models with New Ones; Updating Cycle Shortens to 3 to 5 Years
32
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7. Brand Power Enhancement Strategy: With the Establishment of Multi-Brand Structure and Advancement of Logo Change, Sales Network Integration Also Becomes an Issue
38
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8. Passenger Car Technology Development Strategy: With R&D System Improvement and Investment Expansion, Emphasis Is on the Creation of Domestic and Foreign Cooperation Structure
40
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9. Analysis of Passenger Car Specs (1): Due to Shift of Demand Structure toward Reduced Size, Rising Trend of Retail Price, Engine Displacement, Size, and Weight Turn Downward
42
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10. Analysis of Passenger Car Specs (2): Installment Rate of AT, CVT, Etc. Grows; Composition Ratio of Yellow and Red Grows Due to Rising Demand from Women; Diversification of Suspensions
46
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| ▲Chapter One / ▼Chapter Three | ▲PAGE TOP |
 Chapter Two |
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Policy Regulation Developments Regarding
China’s Passenger Car Market -Motives for Government Allowing Private Mobility- 51 |
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1. Auto Policy: Active Introduction Draws Attention to Eco Car Policy Dev’t to Establish Auto Industry
52
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2. Vehicle Inspection: New Safety System in 2009, Replacement Demand Growth from Tight Scrappage Rules
54
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3. Delivery Systems: Stricter Anti-Monopoly Rules, Issue over Lack of Used Car Evaluation Function
56
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4. Import System: Growth in Luxury Car Assembly due to Tariff Cuts and Knock-Down Authorization
58
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5. Fuel Economy: 2-Phased Rules on Existing Passenger Cars from 2009, Competition Gets Under Way
60
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6. Safety Regulations: Fast Tracking Legislation on Par with Developed Countries Under C-NCAP of 2006
62
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7. Vehicle Taxes: Exhaustive Review Following Sales Tax Amendment and Introduction of Fuel Tax
64
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8. Recall System: Warranty Competition Gains Pace, Issue of Improvements by Local Companies
66
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9. Chinese Character Name Rules: Govt. Maintains Protection Policies, State Brands Use to Boost Image
68
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| ▲Chapter Two / ▼Chapter Four | ▲PAGE TOP |
Chapter Three |
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Passenger Car Demand Characteristics and Outlook by Segment
-Diverse user tastes within a multi-layer cluster - 71 |
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1. Segment Classification：Reviews Expand Passenger Car Classifications to Meet Diversifying User Needs
72 |
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2. Influencing Factors on Passenger Car Segments： Rising Frugality Shifts Popularity to Low-Cost Products; Attention on Growing Green Vehicle Options in the Med/Long-Terms 74 |
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Mini (A) & Small (B) ： Active Entry by Chinese Makers; Taking Advantage of Preferential Policies; Clarifying Direction of Market Expansion
78
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Lower Medium (C) ：
84
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Upper Medium (D) ： Japanese Makers’ 50% Share Captures High Profitability;
Market Expands to 2 Mn Units in 2010 90
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Near Executive (E1) & Executive (E2) ： Stronghold by European Makers;
Market Expansion with End to KD Regulations 96
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Luxury (F) ： Weak Demand from Revision of Sales Tax;
Emerging Elite in Inland Regions Driving Force for Market Growth 100
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Sports ： European Makers Capture 70% Share;
Luxury Tastes Grow Despite Shrinking Market in 2010s 104
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MPV/B & C-MPV ： Japanese Small Models Lead Registrations to 300,000 Units; As Leisure Tools, Forecast to Grow to 860,000 Units in 2020
108
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SUV ： Growth Driven by Mid-Level Japanese/Korean Brands;
High Demand Stays on Steady Popularity 112
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| ▲Chapter Three / ▼Chapter Five | ▲PAGE TOP |
Chapter Four |
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Passenger Car Ownership Characteristics and Outlook by Region
-Course of motorization in the much-focused inland regions- 117 |
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1. Regional Motorization Disparity：Ballooning Multilayered Consumption from Progress of Multistage Economic Growth
118 |
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Southeast Coastal ： Expansion of Passenger Car Market to 4.5 Mn Units in 2020; Weakening Role of Demand Driven for Private Cars
120
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North Coastal ： Progressive Passenger Car Diffusion Centered in Beijing and Shandong; Forecast for Rising Small Car Demand
124
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Northeast ： Rising Consumption in Rural Areas to Double Passenger Car Market in 2020 to 1 Mn Units
128
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Southwest Inland ： Headed to the 2010s, Private Market Drives Local Vehicle Consumption, Surge to 10 Mn Unit Level
132
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Northwest Inland ： Growth to Ownership of 5.86 Mn Units Based on the Region’s Heavy Industry; C-Segment Centered Passenger Car Registrations to 2.37 Mn Units in 2020
136
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Central Inland ： Growth to Ownership of 7.38 Mn Units Centered on Henan Province; Targets Passenger Car Registrations of 2.58 Mn Units in 2020
140
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Hainan Province ： Fuel Surcharge Sees Efficient Japanese Cars Dominate, Forecasting Annual Market of 70,000 Units in 2020
144
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| ▲Chapter Four / ▼Chapter Six | ▲PAGE TOP |
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Chapter Five |
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Passenger Car Ownership/Demand Characteristics and
Growth Outlook by Major City -Pinpointing disparity and characteristics of vehicle consumption- 147 |
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1. Characteristic Analysis to 2020 of Motorization in 22 Major Cities：
Income Levels and Suburban Population Structure Main Factors for Diffusion 148 |
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Beijing ： Maintains Country’s Highest Ownership Rates from Strong Public/Private Demand; Possibility Remains of Change in Policy due to Worsening Traffic Problems
154
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Shanghai ：
156
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Tianjin ： Expansion in Compact Car Sales to Drive Passenger Car Market to 300,000 Units in 2020
158
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Guangzhou ： Compact Cars Engine of Passenger Car Consumption Increase; Rise in Mini Car Sales Following End to Registration Restrictions on Small Displacement Cars
160
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Chongqing ： Expansion in Compact Car Sales to Drive Passenger Car Market to 200,000 Units in 2020
162
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Xiamen ： Rise in C-Segment Sales Brings 2020 City Private Car Ownership Target of 400,000 Units
164
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Shenzhen ： Aims for Vehicle Ownership of 1.5 Mn Units in 2015; To Boost Diffusion of New-Energy Cars
166
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Hangzhou ： C/D-Segments Remain as Core with 60% Registrations; Headed for 260,000 Units in 2020, Attention Draws to Competitive Compact Cars by Origin
168
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Wuhan ： Aims for Registrations of 160,000 Units in 2020 with Focus on B/C-Segments; Attention Draws to Competitive Launches of Small Displacement and New-Energy Cars
170
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Chengdu ： Small Displacement Cars Account for 70% of Registrations; Ownership of 2.7 Mn Units in 2020
172
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| ▲Chapter Five / ▼Chapter Seven | ▲PAGE TOP |
Chapter Six |
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2020 Passenger Car Business Strategies by Brand
-Undertakings by Automakers to Test the Limits of Respective Brands- 175 |
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1. 2020 Passenger Car Growth Outlook by Origin and Brand：As Three-way Dominance Between Japanese, Chinese, Europeans Continues, VW and Hyundai Lift Presence
176 |
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VW ：
180
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Audi ： Aims for China Sales Expansion in 2013 to 250,000 Units, Overtaking Sales at Home in Germany
182
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Toyota ： Aims to Capture Share Through EFC, HV; Looking at Local Production of Lexus, Issues over Boosting Performance of the Luxury Brand
184
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GM ： Building a 2 Mn Unit Setup in 2013; Higher A/B Segment Share in 2020 Through Chevrolet Compact Car Launches
186
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Honda ： Adding to the Honda Brand, Full Independent Brand Launches in 2020 from Two Joint Ventures
188
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Nissan ： Focus on Inland Small, Mid-Size Cities Brings Successful Sales Network Strategies and Promotion; Eyes Earnings Growth from China to Outstrip Japan, US
190
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Ford ： Little Fallout from Production Adjustment After Volvo Selloff; Sights Greater Share in China from New Model Launch Offensives
192
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Mazda ： Strengthens Independence on Lower Ford Shareholding; To Boost Sales Through Increased Networks and CS, Providing Finance, Improved Customer Service, While Lifting Productivity
194
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Hyundai Motor ： Establishing a 900,000 Unit Setup in 2012; After C Segment, Aims to Expand D Share in 2020 and Boost Brand Performance
196
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Kia ： Eyes on 430,000 Units in 2010; Expands C Segment Products and Sales Networks Targeting 2nd, 3rd Tier Cities
198
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BMW ： Buildup at Shenyang Base and Active New Model Launches; Looks to Combat Audi with Additional SUVs, Compact Cars
200
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Mercedes-Benz ： Diversification of Product Line from Compact to Ultra High-End to Overtake BMW in the Short-term, Exceed 100,000 Units in the Long-Term
202
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Suzuki ： Fresh Start in China Through Changhe JV with CHANA; Expansion from Launches of World Cars
204
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Fiat ： After Troubled NAC, Chery Joint Venture Experiences, Sights on Fresh Offensive with Local Small Car, SUV Production Ties with Guangqi Fiat
206
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Mitsubishi Motors ： Fostering Import Business with Sights on 100,000 Sales in 2015, Yet Headed for 2020 Reorganization of Joint Ventures Unclear
208
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Chery ： Multi-Brand Business Knowhow and Niche Market Products Required for 1.5 Mn Sales in 2015
210
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Geely ： Promotion of High-End Strategy, Shift to Multi-Brand Setup; Segregation of Sales Network an Issue
212
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CHANA ： Setting up Manufacturing, Sales of over 2.6 Mn Units by 2012; Eyes on Utility Vehicle Share and Increased Launches of A Segment Passenger Cars
214
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BYD ： Promotes Increased Profit Base and Set up of Sales Networks Centered on the F3; Expansion of Products as Largest Green Car Maker
216
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Haima ： Aims for 150,000 C Segment Sales in 2010, Yet Difficult Road Ahead; Dull Growth to Continue Through to 2020
218
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Brilliance ： Expansion of Passenger Car Lineup Through to SUVs; Focus on Capacity Buildup at North, South China Bases
220
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Roewe/MG ： Retains Product Differentiation Despite Consolidation of Sales Networks and Platforms; Clarifying Position of MG Brand an Issue
222
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FAW ： Six Platforms, 16 Models by 2010; Med/Long-Term Aims for Annual Capacity of 3 Mn Units
224
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GAIG ： Aims for Passenger Car Sales of 1.1 Mn Units in 2010 and Annual Capacity of 400,000 Independent Brand Units in 2011
226
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BAIC ： With Med/Long-Term Sights on Passenger Car Annual Capacity of 1.5 Mn Units, Looks to Boost Independent Brand Passenger Car R&D and Promote M&A Strategy
228
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Great Wall ： Eyes on 60,000 Passenger Car Sales in 2009 with Launch of B Segment Florid and B-MPV Cool Bear
230
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Dongfeng ： In 2010, Aims for 1.35 Mn Passenger Car Sales and 720,000 Independent Brand Sales Including the Fengshen S30
232
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Lifan ： Boosts Joint R&D with TJ Innova to Launch Eight Passenger Car Models by 2010
234
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Jianghuai ： Plans Launch of Seven Passenger Car Models in 2010 Built on Four Platforms
236
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EU Ultra Luxury ： Monopolizes 1 Mn CNY and Over Niche Market Particularly in the East; Attention on Demand Changes from Increase in Inland Wealthy
238
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| ▲Chapter Six | ▲PAGE TOP |
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Chapter Seven |
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Potential of Expanding Peripheral Businesses
-Development of Legal System by Sector and Trends of Major Enterprises- 241 |
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Development of Legal System by Sector and Trends of Major Enterprises：
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1. Vehicle Loan Market: Utility Rate Rises Along with Generational Change; Credit Expansion Boosts Formation of 550 Billion CNY Market by 2020
242 |
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244 |
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3. Vehicle Maintenance/Repair: Formation of Diverse Entities Based on Surge in Vehicle Possession; Challenges of Industrial Regulations
246 |
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4. Used Vehicle Market: Estimated to Reach 3 Million Units Annually; Market Is Expected to Expand As Heading Toward Peak Period in Replacement
248 |
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5. Vehicle Insurance: Anticipated to Become an Over 200 Billion CNY Market Based on Surge in Vehicle Possession
250 |
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6. Vehicle Recycling/Rebuilding: Emergence of 2.7 Million Scrapped Vehicles with Surge in Vehicle Possession; Aim for 95% Recycle Rate by 2017
252 |
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7. Vehicle Supplies: Along with Business Enhancement of Major Foreign Suppliers Chinese Improve Quality of Maintenance/Repair and Commodities
254 |
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8. Vehicle Advertising: Launching Video Advertisements and Using Popularity of Celebrities to Create Product Image
256 |
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9. Gas Stations: Expansion to 100,000 Locations; Stepped Up Facility Investment Primarily in Western China
258 |
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10. Driving Schools: Enhancement of On-the-Road Training Regulations to Screen Out Schools
260 |
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